- The World Bank said more Nigerians will become poor by 2027
- It said sub-Saharan Africa has the highest extreme poverty rate globally, with a large share of the poor concentrated in a few countries
- The World Bank said the urban population would grow by over 238 million by 2035, and may accelerate poverty
The World Bank says more Nigerians will become poor by 2027 as poverty will increase in Nigeria by three percentage points between 2022 and 2027, despite the country’s resource-rich status.
The World Bank disclosed this on Thursday, April 24, in its Africa Pulse report released at the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC, the United States.
According to the report, poverty rates in resource-rich, fragile countries, including Nigeria, are expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027, making it the only group in Sub-Saharan Africa with a projected rise in poverty.
The report noted that sub-Saharan Africa has the highest extreme poverty rate globally, with a large share of the poor concentrated in a few countries.
It said that about 80 per cent of the world’s estimated 695 million extreme poor resided in the region in 2024, compared to eight per cent in South Asia, two per cent in East Asia and the Pacific, five per cent in the Middle East and North Africa, and three per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The report stated, “Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest extreme poverty rate globally, and a large share of the poor is concentrated in a few countries.
“About 80 per cent of the world’s estimated 695 million extreme poor resided in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, compared to eight per cent in South Asia, two per cent in East Asia and the Pacific, five per cent in the Middle East and North Africa, and three per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Within Sub-Saharan Africa, half of the 560 million extreme poor in 2024 resided in four countries.”
World Bank says poverty will increase in resource-rich, fragile countries
According to the World Bank, resource-rich, fragile countries, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, will witness a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty from 2022 to 2027.
It attributed the situation to a well-established trend where fragility and conflict often punctuate resource wealth.
The report further suggested that improving fiscal management and developing a stronger fiscal contract with citizens is crucial for resource-rich countries like Nigeria.
It said, on the other hand, non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries recorded the biggest reduction in poverty since 2000 and fully closed the gap in poverty with other non-resource-rich countries by 2010.
The report stated, “Non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue reducing poverty faster than resource-rich countries.
“Thanks to higher prices of agricultural commodities, non-resource-rich countries will see higher growth overall, despite fiscal pressures.
“Conversely, resource-rich countries are not expected to grow at the same rate given decelerating oil prices. As a result, resource-rich countries are expected to see less progress in terms of poverty reduction.
“Importantly, poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries (which include large countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria) is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points over 2022–27, being the only group in the region with increasing poverty rates.
“This follows a well-established pattern: resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—an average poverty rate of 46 per cent in 2024, 13 percentage points above non-fragile, resource-rich countries.
“Meanwhile, non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries saw the biggest gains in poverty reduction since 2000 and fully closed the gap in poverty with other non-resource-rich countries by 2010.”
‘Urban population to grow by over 238 million by 2035, may accelerate poverty’
The World Bank further stated that the urban population is projected to grow by over 238 million by 2035, surpassing the rural population.
It added that while most of the population of Africa and its highest levels of poverty are found in rural areas, rapid urbanisation could accelerate poverty reduction “under the right conditions.”
According to the Bank, poverty reduction between 2010 and 2019 was primarily driven by urbanisation rather than significant decreases in poverty within rural or urban areas.
“In 2020, only 41 per cent of the continent was urbanised, but the urban population is projected to grow by over 238 million by 2035, surpassing the rural population.
“This rapid growth presents opportunities for the rural poor seeking to improve their livelihoods through migration,” the report added.
The World Bank stressed that the opportunities presented by urbanisation for the rural population would depend on the ability of urban areas to provide the necessary infrastructure, services, and employment opportunities to support the increased population.
World Bank projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6%, inflation rate of 22.1% in 2025
Meanwhile, TheRadar earlier reported that the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025, building upon an estimated 3.4 per cent growth in 2024, adding that the growth is expected to strengthen to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 2027 if reforms implementation is sustained.
The growth projection was contained in the World Bank’s Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, noting the impact of economic reforms in stabilising the macroeconomic environment.
